El Niño Forecast Monthly ENSO indices since 1877 Linear Regression Confidence Intervals
Curriculum Vitae – 2019 Clarke Curriculum Vitae
My research is focused on understanding and predicting El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (the major short-term climate signal on earth), on decadal and longer climate changes,on high latitude oceanography,on surface gravity waves and flow close to the ocean surface, as well as on flow and sea level on continental shelves. All projects involve using data analysis, dynamics and models to understand how the ocean and the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere system work.
My 2008 book, “An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Nino & the Southern Oscillation,” is now available from Elsevier. Many scientists either working on the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) problem or its many applications have not been trained in both the equatorial ocean and atmospheric dynamics necessary to understand it. This book seeks to overcome this difficulty by providing a step by step introduction to ENSO, helping the upper level graduate student or research scientist to learn quickly the ENSO basics and be up to date with the latest ENSO research. The text assumes that the reader has a knowledge of the equations of fluid mechanics on a rotating earth and emphasizes the observations and simple physical explanations of them.
Following a history of ENSO and a discussion of ENSO observations in Chapters 1 and 2, Chapters 3–5 consider relevant equatorial ocean dynamics, Chapters 6 and 9 relevant atmospheric dynamics, and Chapters 7 and 8 the main paradigms for how the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere couple together to produce ENSO. Chapter 8 also discusses the old mystery of why ENSO tends to be locked in phase with the seasonal cycle. Successful dynamical and statistical approaches to ENSO prediction are discussed in Chapters 10 and 11 while Chapter 12 concludes the book with examples of how ENSO influences marine and bird life.
